2008 State Championship Preview
Well, here we are once again on the brink of another Texas State Championship. All roads point to Waco the first weekend in October.
I have gone through exhaustive analysis of all the pitchers entered including such things as the type of shoe they pitch, how they have pitched in Waco, how they have pitched in the morning vs. the afternoon, how many beverages they consume before and during pitching, what club they are affiliated with, their astrological (is that a word?) sign, how well they Karaoke, smoker vs non-smoker, flip or turn shoe, single flip vs multiple flip, republican, independent or democrat, T-Sip or Aggie, Tastes great or Less filling, etc. Actually I had planned to do all this but Hurricane Ike got in the way so I am going on less information.
For the Men and Women Championship classes we are back to the format of seeding the top 7 in NATSTAT ringer percentages behind the defending champion. This is a good format. Here we go –
Men’s Championship Class
Five of the eight entries are past men’s champions including Ed Arionus who decided to come back to 40 ft this year after winning in the Elder’s class and most recently was the 2004 champion at 40 ft before he went to 30 ft. Brooks Symank is seeded number 1 as the defending champion from 2007. Donnie Jones is seeded high and is the 2005 champion. The other two are Tommy Valenta, the 2003 champion, and Bubba Frieda who won in Waco in 2006. The remaining group includes Duke Carlisle, Jeff Finke and Gene Meyer. Nice bunch.
On paper, this class is a simple case of the wiry veteran of many wars kicking the younger guys’ rear ends (It seems ironic referring to guys like Tommy and Gene as young). But how else do you define what Ed Arionus is doing – He throws over 80% at 30 ft and then decides to come back to 40 ft – he needed more of a challenge but he is averaging nearly 60% and is probably throwing 75% in his backyard right now as you read this. He is clearly the favorite to win. Can anyone beat him?
Brooks and Donnie have demonstrated the most capability of being able to keep up with Ed this year. And I think they have the best chance to pull an upset but will they avoid the ugly 30 to win it all? Possibly.
Gene and Tommy are interesting. Are they quietly planning a Longhorn uprising in Waco? They have under-performed most of the year (based on past performances) but watch out, especially if Bevo (or a look-alike) shows up.
Bubba has under performed also, but he is there in the mix and pitching in Waco, the scene of his 2006 championship. If his shoes are painted white – watch out.
Duke made the top group by pitching consistently and having a nice outing (56%) at ……….was it Waco? I think it was – this makes him dangerous – he could knock off quite a few.
That leaves Jeff Finke – Jeff started late this year and qualified for the top group easily. If he gets in his groove he is almost certain to make a splash.
Bottom line – Ed Arionus will probably not throw a game below 55% and thus will likely win every game. He is a veteran and knows how to win. He makes few mistakes and is emotionally stable as a rock. Runner-up will be Brooks as he has a great run of games but slows down on two that cost him. The sleeper in the group will be Jeff –
But believe me – all want it bad – Good luck to all – wish I was in there with you. Where is Willie?
Women’s Championship Class
Three former champions grace the field for the women’s championship and they are seeded one, two and three (Cathy as defending champion, Debra and Summar). These three seem to all be pitching very well when they have pitched. Don’t be surprised if they wind up in the top three again.
If the Astros had made the playoffs I would have picked Dee to finish as a possible upset winner but her heart may not be in it as much with her Astros finishing just short.
The bottom half of the class includes some folks who can easily knock off any of the top four with a good game – question is do they have the capability of doing it 6 or 7 times – maybe but a very tough chore – in any event Virlene, Chris, Holly and Tammie will be in their giving their all each game
Bottom Line – Debra will squeak by with another championship with an under achieving 71% performance. Cathy and Summar will battle for 2nd with Cathy winning out on ringer %. The sleeper will be Virlene – she will sneak up on some folks throwing her best tournament ever.
Elder’s Championship Class
Were the elder men glad to see Ed Arionus move up to 40 feet? Maybe.
On paper (here we go again), this class should be owned by Paul McCreery. Again he is a veteran, little emotion, simplest delivery and motion you can imagine. He is capable of 90% games every time. He is the guy to beat - even though he will tell you different.
But the rest of these guys have some pretty healthy experience in the past and are certainly capable of throwing a huge game each time they step up – question is can they do it 6 or 7 times. Jack Richards, Scotty Roberds and Pete Wheeler seem to make up the best of the rest. Look for one of them to step up big and give Paul a run for his money.
Johnny, Welby, and Terry will be competitive at times but may not have enough to carry all the way through. And Hats off to Sidney – competing in his first Elders State Championship – His recovery from health issues will slow him down but will be the first to make no excuses.
Junior Girls Championship
How do you say 4-peat? Look for Kimberly Jones to rack up her 4th consecutive State Championship – but she will have some possible heat from Marissa Carlisle – could be some spirited games with the boys – would it be possible for Kimberly to go undefeated against everyone? The boys would not let that happen would they? It could get interesting.
Junior Boys Championship
This looks like a three person race among the top three seeds. I think you have with the hot hand and that is Richie Ochoa – he threw a 54% tournament the last time out – if he has been practicing he is liable to do that again. Look for Tyler Norman to hang in there and battle and come up one game short for second. Nicky Pigman will be steady and is a sleeper in this event.
Here are the rest of the classes:
Men’s B – Look for Wesley Knapek to have his turn shoe working and sneak by Bud Dodson. Sleeper is Nick Lance who is working hard this year and improving.
Men’s C – Paul Kennedy is good in Waco and will survive this tough class. Dale is pitching well after his World experience and Harold Jamieson is the sleeper in this group.
Men’s D – Eleno Rios Garcia is my pick in this class with Ray Douglas a close second but watch out for Mike Dodd who is pitching well of late.
Men’s E – I am leaning toward Gary Goff as the winner here with no. 8 seed Richard Ochoa a close second. Sleeper is Leslie Mansell.
Men’s F – Jeff Bartek seems to pitch well in Waco so he is selected to come out on top, but Deen Jackson is HOT. Look for Garland Bailey as the sleeper (if a no. 1 seed can be a sleeper) as he pitches well in Waco also.
Men’s G – This is an interesting class – I think Jay Ray and David Orban are a toss-up here (look for a play-off). Has anyone pitched in more tournaments than Ken Alligood? He is the sleeper, however all bets are off if Coke can get through his foot issues and pitch well.
Men’s H – John Humphries is very consistent and should prevail here with Joe Justus right behind. Sleeper is Larry Lee.
Men’s I – Donny Hegefeld is the HOT pitcher in this bunch and will win out. Gerald Chapa will hang in there for runner-up and the sleeper is Doug McCreery.
Men’s J – Tough to differentiate here – Look for Jim Ince to battle through for first and T. P. Holt coming right behind in second. The sleeper of this group is Randy Mitchell.
Men’s K – Coyce has been down quite a while but looks to be coming back – He could be the HOT pitcher in this group with Ronald Hensen a close second. The sleeper here is Jason Justus.
Men’s L – A mere 0.41% separates the no. 1 and 8 seeds. This class could end up in a four way tie they are so evenly matched. But I would lean with the most consistent Dewayne Hessel – he’ll come out of that 4 way tie. Jim Anderson will talk his way into a second place finish and the rest are sleepers – maybe an edge to Bill Eagan.
Men’s M – Look for local Jimmy Bryant to come out on top with Joh Atkins right behind. Chris Alfinowicz is the sleeper.
Men’s N – Leslie Sharp is the HOT pitcher among these talented pitchers and will win. John Reuter will nab second and Bobby Croft will surprise some and be the sleeper.
Men’s O – Kenney Kerlin will prevail with Johnny Williams on his tail all the way. The sleeper here is Shawn Dwyer (his last was a 24% effort- watch out)
Men’s P – Pretty tough bunch – Look for Robert McCharen II to survive probably in a playoff with John Abra Jr. There might be two losses each. Sleeper will be Chris Mejia.
Men’s Q – Larry Lauer is HOT and pitched well in Waco – should be his to lose. Second to Donald Wendler and sleeper is Tom Malaise.
Men’s R – Wesley Johannessen is the HOT pitcher in this group and that will carry him to victory. Brent Nelsen will be close behind and the sleeper is Justin McCharen assuming he practices some prior.
Men’s S – Jesse Lara will squeak by the rest to win and Paul Berry will be right behind him for second. Sleeper is Dennis Childress.
Women’s B – Tandi Thomason will prevail in this class and Laurie Frieda will be a close second. Sleeper will be Louise Alligood.
Women’s C – Merry Jo Callahan will make good and Sharon Dodd will finish ahead of the rest but watch out for sleeper Paula Poff (46% last outing0.
Women’s D – Nelda Dodson and Patty White may wind up tied in this bunch with Nelda prevailing. Sleeper will be Jan Stimmel – remember she threw 47% at State last year.
Women’s E – I’d guess to look for Wanda Jamieson to be the class of this group and Beverley McDaniel a close second. Sleeper will be Debra Ratcliff who is quietly improving quite a bit.
Women’s F – Shannon Kirkland will squeak by for first and steady Kathy Anderson will fall in just behind her. Sleeper is Lorri Kessler.
Women’s G – Lavern Wilcox will preach her way Sunday morning to a victory with Lesia Gailey on her tail. Sleepers are Jinger Stanley and Debra DuBose
Elder’s B – William Kuykendall is a solid favorite to win here. Look for George Hogue to come in second and Lyle Baker is the sleeper.
Juniors B – C. J Mejia will finish on top and Kayla Phelps will come in second (barely ahead of Michael Dodd). Sleeper is Zachary Mills (both Zachary and Brandon are improving – watch out)
AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST _ THE TOUGHEST ONE TO CALL
Junior Cadet A – After much deliberation and thought – it is going out on a huge limb but I think Clay Holt will win this one in a squeaker – Congrats to Clay Holt.
Now that I have made about 75% of you mad because I did not pick you to win or place – please remember this is just for fun and I hope everyone pitches their best tournament ever and wins.
More words of wisdom – make more ringers than your opponent or just go first all the time.
Please pray for all those folks that have lost loved ones this year and for those that could not participate because illness.
Be thankful you are pitching and show courtesy and respect toward your fellow pitchers. In the end everything happens for the best.
Bob McCharen
PS – Be sure and vote